Kashmir – where did Modi go wrong?

Posted by Ameer Tarin 06/02/2021

The US-China business as usual, the deficit with China in 2020 increased $21.4 billion to $75.8 billion in the second quarter. Exports increased $2.5 billion to $36.8 billion and imports increased $23.9 billion to $112.6 billion. No government in USA or China has any intention of going to war as both these countries worked very hard to build these nations and would not take the risk of messing it up.

The majority of affluent countries around the world after Soviet Union’s breakup, more or less were in firm control of the only super power USA. Now China’s quantum leap in the fields of technology and economic development surprised the world and swiftly acquired super power status caused nervousness to the Exclusive Monopoly Group. Brahma Chellaney, a geo-strategist and author from India on June 28, 2001 wrote in the New York Times That “Like Truman and Eisenhower, Kennedy was inspired by a belief that a Kashmir settlement would facilitate a joint front against Communist China. After five rounds of fruitless India-Pakistan talks, he concluded that Kashmir, for the two, was more important than the struggle against the Communists”.

So the political influence of China extending to most of these countries with their coffers full became worrisome. Trump administration needed a bulwark in the region to thwart growing Chinese influence and India was thought to provide that opportunity. India needed to prove that it qualifies to do the job and on the basis of being a nuclear power, having economic and military strength started showing its muscle power to browbeat its immediate neighbours starting with Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Maldives.

Pakistan, India conveyed, had already been dismembered in 1971 and was no match to India. China only a piece of cake as the Indian army chief Bipin Rawat on several occasions stated that “we can take on China and Pakistan simultaneously”. Meanwhile India toyed with the idea of a Hindu Rashtra pouncing on its minorities right, left and centre. The new “super power” role assigned made Prime Minister Modi invincible and smaller neighbouring nations already subdued focused on taming Pakistan. Incursions on LOC (Line of Control) resulting in casualties and damage to civilian property a daily affair, Indian army emboldened frequently talked about “Surgical Strikes”.

Pakistan responded to India’s attempt of the last “Surgical Strike” with full force, downed two of its fighter air crafts and even captured a pilot Mr Abhinandan. It was a huge display of valour, strategy, air-dominance and military strength. The Pakistani response exposed the myth of Indian superiority and superpower status in the region and many eye-brows rose in the important capitals of the world. China having invested billions in Pakistan felt more threatened than Pakistan and swung in action. In a military adventure occupied hundreds of miles inside Kashmir in its Ladakh region and spread its sphere to other corner of India’s north-east down to the Chicken Neck.

Kashmir already sitting on the volcano, during Modi’s regime became hugely talked about issue on international level. Indian persecution and atrocities in Kashmir did not go unnoticed and millions of Kashmiris caged are seen as the unparalleled human rights catastrophe. A sinister plan to change the demography of the Muslim majority Kashmir is seen as a threat to the safety of the entire region. The Hindutva conspiracy is bound to destabilise not only the Indian sub-continent but the whole world with dangerous consequences.

Modi’s Hindutva BJP party backed by notoriously fanatical religious syndicate’s daily coercion, harassment and oppression has pushed all minorities to the wall and has made their lives impossible. Khalistan Movement is at the peak and Sikhs a minority in India demand an independent nation for themselves. Moreover, Christians in the north-east Nagaland, Manipur, Assam among few are up in arms and want to secede from India. Millions of farmers have surrounded Indian capital Delhi and have crippled Indian administration.

Many believe that Prime Minister Modi’s hurriedly taken political decisions like removal of India’s only political link with Kashmir, Indian citizenship bill targeting all minorities especially the largest Muslim minority, demolition of Babri Mosque and now the Indian Farm Bill has brought millions on the roads and Modi’s government has no solution to offer.

Modi’s BJP, the political Pundits believe, cannot afford a U-turn as it will be too risky. The killers of Gandhi, Nehru and Lal Bahadur Shastri are waiting in the wings keeping a strict vigil on Modi’s upcoming political decisions.

Modi committed a political blunder by using the slogan Agli Baar Trump sarkar, a direct interference in American political system. Biden-Harris government consider it an unfriendly act because it could have changed the political fate of the Democratic Party. The four million Hindu –American votes could have turned the tables against the Democrats. The new government in Washington realises that India failed to deliver for America and now has lost the intended purpose.

China now claims whole of Kashmir because it says China has more military power than India. After August 05, 2019, Indian unilateral action India removed the only link article 370 of Indian constitution that allowed some grip on Kashmir and keep the international community in good stead. The link removed makes India an occupier holding Kashmir on the basis of military strength. China or Pakistan giving India a bloody nose with proven unmatched military power can simply walk into Kashmir or Himachal Pradesh to claim these as their own territories. India, inadvertently, offered China or Pakistan the principle of ‘might is right’ on a platter.